On 18 May 2026, the US OFAC issued General License 134C whereby the US lifted for the third month (until 17 June 2026) the US restrictions for dealing with Russian seaborne oil loaded on the vessels before 17 April 2026 . We discussed this unprecedented step in our earlier post, when in March 2026 the US temporary lifted its sanctions for the first time, and then in a subsequent post, when in April the first extension occurred.
Now we see the second extension which justifies a preliminary conclusion that the US will not reimpose its sanctions on the Russian seaborne oil at least until the current war in Iran settles, the production in the Gulf resumes, and world oil prices go back to pre-war levels. This is a long way from now.
If we are accurate in our predictions, this marks a fundamental division in a sanctions’ policy between the US and the EU with respect to Russia, given that the export of crude oil is by far the most important source of Russian exports and revenues to the budget.
For the overview of international economic sanctions against Russian oil sector, please see our video here.